Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Precision of age determination of northern offshore spotted dolphins.

We investigated within- and between-reader precision in estimating age for northern offshore spotted dolphins and possible effects on precision from the sex and age-class of specimens. Age was estimated from patterns of growth layer groups i n the dentine and cementum of the dolphins' teeth. Each specimen was aged at least three times by each of two persons. Two data samples were studied. The first comprised 800 of each sex from animals collected during 1973-78. The second included 45 females collected during 1981. There were significant, generally downward trends through time in the estimates from multiple readings of the 1973-78 data. These trends were slight, and age distributions from last readings and mean estimates per specimen appeared to be homogeneous. The largest factor affecting precision in the 1973-78 data set was between-reader variation. In light of the relatively high within-reader precision (trends considered), the consistent between-reader differences suggest a problem of accuracy rather than precision for this series. Within-reader coefficients of variation averaged approximately 7% and 11%. Pooling the data resulted i n an average coefficient of variation near 16%. Within- and between-reader precision were higher for the 1981 sample, and the data homogeneous over both factors. CVs averaged near 5% and 6% for the two readers. These results point to further refinements in reading the 1981 series. Properties of the 1981 sample may be partly responsible for greater precision: by chance there were proportionately fewer older dolphins included, and preparation and selection criteria were probably more stringent. (PDF contains 35 pages.)

Variation in size of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) within individual purse-seine sets

ENGLISH:Length-frequency samples of yellowfin tuna from 276 individual purse-seine sets were examined. Evidence of schooling by size is presented. Yellowfin schooled with skipjack are smaller and more homogeneous in length than are yellowfin from pure schools. Yellowfin in schools associated with porpoise appear to be more variable in size than yellowfin from other types of schools. No relationship was found between the tonnage of yellowfin in a school and the mean length of the yellowfin. Despite the tendency to school by size, the size variation within individual schools was judged to be enough to complicate greatly any program of regulation aimed at maximizing the yield-per-recruit through increasing the minimum size of yellowfin at first capture. SPANISH: Fueron examinadas las muestras frecuencia-longitud de atún aleta amarilla, de 276 lances individuales de redes de cerco. Se presenta la evidencia de agrupación por tamaños. Los atunes aleta amarilla agrupados con barrilete, son más pequeños y más homogéneos en longitud, que los atunes aleta amarilla de cardúmenes puros. El atún aleta amarilla en cardúmenes asociados con delfines parece ser más variable en tamaño, que el atún aleta amarilla proveniente de otros tipos de cardúmenes. No se encontró relac¡'ón entre el tonelaje del atún aleta amarilla en un cardumen y la longitud media de esta especie. A pesar de la tendencia a agruparse por tamaño, se juzgó, que la variación de tamaño en cardúmenes individuales, sería suficiente para complicar grandemente cualquier programa de reglamentación, dirigido a obtener el máximo del rendimiento por recluta a través del incremento del tamaño mínimo del atún aleta amarilla en la primera captura.

Reconstructing an 83-Year Time Series of Daily Sea Surface Temperature at Pacific Grove, California

Daily sea surface temperatures have been acquired at the Hopkins Marine Station in Pacific Grove, California since January 20, 1919.This time series is one of the longest oceanographic records along the U.S. west coast. Because of its length it is well-suited for studying climate-related and oceanic variability on interannual, decadal, and interdecadal time scales. The record, however, is not homogeneous, has numerous gaps, contains possible outliers, and the observations were not always collected at the same time each day. Because of these problems we have undertaken the task of reconstructing this long and unique series. We describe the steps that were taken and the methods that were used in this reconstruction. Although the methods employed are basic, we believe that they are consistent with the quality of the data. The reconstructed record has values at every time point, original, or estimated, and has been adjusted for time-of-day variations where this information was available. Possible outliers have also been examined and replaced where their credibility could not be established. Many of the studies that have employed the Hopkins time series have not discussed the issue of data quality and how these problems were addressed. Because of growing interest in this record, it is important that a single, well-documented version be adopted, so that the results of future analyses can be directly compared. Although additional work may be done to further improve the quality of this record, it is now available via the internet. [PDF contains 48 pages]

TUNPOP: A simulation of the dynamics and structure of the yellowfin tuna stock and surface fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Three distinct versions of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacores, stock and surface tuna fishery, are used to reveal mechanisms which appear to have a significant effect on the fishery dynamics. Real data on this fishery are used to make deductions on the distribution of the fish and to show how that distribution might influence events in the fishery. The most important result of the paper is that the concept of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna stock as a homogeneous unit is inadequate to represent the recent history of the fishery. Inferences are made on the size and distribution of the underlying stock as well as its potential yield to the surface fishery as a result of alterations in the level and distribution of the effort. SPANISH: Se han empleado tres versiones diferentes de TUNP0P, un modelo de simulación de la computadora (basado en la estructura de la edad) de la población y la pesca epipelágica del atún aleta amarilla, Tbunnus albacares, del Pacífico oriental, para revelar los mecanismos que parecen tener un efecto importante en la dinámica pesquera. Se emplean los datos verdaderos de esta pesca para hacer deducciones sobre la distribución de los peces y para mostrar cómo puede influir esta distribución en los eventos de pesca. La conclusión más importante de este estudio es que el concepto de que la población del aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental es una unidad homogénea, es inadecuado para representar la historia reciente de pesca. Se teoriza sobre la talla y distribución de la población subyacente como también sobre su producción potencial en la pesca epipelágica al cambiar el nivel y distribución del esfuerzo.

Makrelen- und Holzmakrelenfänge stimmen zuversichtlich

In order to determine the abundance of incoming year classes of both mackerel and horse mackerel a couple of research vessels in the frame of ICES investigats waters west of the British Isles, the Gulf of Biscay and areas west of the Iberian Peninsula in the first half of each third year. In 1995, Germany took place in these investigations with R.V. "Walther Herwig III" from March 23 to April 18. A total of 100 plankton stations were made using a Gulf - III - Sampier between Fastnet Rock and the Gironde estuary. In addition, 87 fishing stations were occupied by a GOV net. Though fish indications were not fished on purpose large amounts of especially horse mackerel and mackerel were gained in the half hour tows. Besides, boarfish (Capros aper L.), blue whiting, and sprat were found in considerable quantities and numbers in some areas. The hydrographc situation was as expected: The development of a surfaee thermocline created by radiation indieates the collapse of the vertically homogeneous situation of the winter period.

On the number of generations of tendipes in collective ponds in Kuibyshchevskoi district [Translation from: C.R. Acad.Sci. U.R.S.S. 95, 1113-1115, 1954]

Three ponds were chosen for this study. The two lower ones were of 2 - 4 hectares in area, the depth of the littoral zone was 2.5 - 3 metres at the time of maximum flooding and the mud which covered the floor of the ponds was homogeneous and autochthonous in nature with very few vegetable remnants. The ponds which were originally set up in 1950. were intended for water supply and populated with Crucian Carp (for human consumption). A survey was done in the ponds in order to establish number and biomass of Tendipes semireductus. The author concludes that in these ponds T.semireductus has 2-3 generations per year.